Commercial Metals (CMC): Has the Recent 40% Year‑to‑Date Rally Pushed Shares Beyond Fair Value?

Simply Wall St.

Commercial Metals (CMC): Has the Recent 40% Year‑to‑Date Rally Pushed Shares Beyond Fair Value?

Simply Wall St

Mon, December 15, 2025 at 12:11 PM EST

2 min read

In this article:

Commercial Metals (CMC) has quietly put together a strong run recently, with the stock up about 20% over the past month and more than 40% year to date. That kind of steady climb is getting investor attention.

See our latest analysis for Commercial Metals.

Zooming out, that recent 30 day share price return of roughly 19.6 percent caps a strong year of momentum. Commercial Metals is now trading around 70.56 dollars as investors reassess its growth and earnings resilience.

If this kind of steady momentum has your attention, it might be worth exploring other construction linked names and industrial players using fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for fresh ideas beyond steel and metals.

With shares now hovering near analyst targets after a stellar multi year run, the big question is whether Commercial Metals still trades below its true worth, or if the market has already priced in the next leg of growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 4% Overvalued

Commercial Metals last closed at 70.56 dollars, a touch above the most followed fair value estimate of 67.85 dollars. This frames a modest premium narrative.

CMC's strategic initiatives, particularly the Transform, Advance, and Grow (TAG) program, are projected to generate an additional 25 million dollars in benefits over the rest of fiscal 2025 and promise further enhancements in the coming years. These improvements are likely to permanently improve margins and increase earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why a mature steel recycler is being modeled with compound growth that rivals fast movers, and a future profit multiple that still assumes discipline, not hype? The assumptions behind those rising earnings, expanding margins, and shrinking share count are far more aggressive than the headline valuation suggests.

Result: Fair Value of $67.85 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slower construction demand or prolonged legal setbacks, such as the Pacific Steel Group appeal, could squeeze margins and challenge those upbeat growth assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Commercial Metals narrative.

Build Your Own Commercial Metals Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in just a few minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Commercial Metals research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for your next investing edge?

Smart investors never stop sharpening their watchlists, so use the Simply Wall Street Screener today to uncover high conviction ideas before the crowd chases them.

Story Continues

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include CMC.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

View Comments

Source